How many transactions would be needed to sustain the current value of Bitcoin mining reward?
The gray columns I grabbed from https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply, everything else is formulas.
– Bitcoin will be considered a success at 10% of the population of the world adoption/using it.
– This success will be achieved around 50 years from now, and adoption will grow in an s-curve as the cumulative of a normal distribution.
– Current adoption is around 1 million people out of 7 billion = ~0.0143% adoption.
– The Bitcoin price is directly correlated to the adoption rate.
– The cost of a 51% attack is currently $300M
– All transactions pay $0.06 transaction fees.
– All numbers are considered present value – nothing considers inflation of the US dollar.
Conclusions (based directly on the above assumptions, so take it with a grain of salt):
– Exactly zero transactions are needed to sustain the current level of mining reward until the year 2052, at which point 68,302 transactions per block are needed to sustain the reward level.
– We’ll need to have block sizes above 1MB by 2017 to sustain growth.
– We’ll need to have block sizes above 13MB by 2025 to sustain growth.
– Eventually, we’ll have 310,000 transactions per block, resulting in block sizes around 120MB each.
– Hopefully technology will continue advancing and sustain the ability for this number of transactions to continue on the Bitcoin network.
– The cost of staging a 51% attack will continue to rise into the billions of dollars until around the year 2030.
– The value of one Bitcoin will eventually reach $350,000.
Of course, much of this is wild guesses and conjecture, but it was still interesting to speculate about the future of Bitcoin in this manner.